Soon after Boeing’s revolutionary 747 made its first flight in 1969, it became fondly known as the ‘Queen of the Skies’ and signalled the beginning of a golden age for commercial flight and luxury travel. Here was a double-decker jumbo that dwarfed all that came before it, both in terms of size and technology. Airlines across the globe rushed to put pen to paper and add it to their fleet.
The aircraft’s now iconic humped exterior and four-engine set-up have fundamentally reshaped how we travel. And with a range of close to 9,565km, a ceiling of 13,716m and a top speed of 1,029kph, the 747 has made long-haul travel affordable for a far greater number of people.
The so-called Jumbo Jet was the first wide-body aircraft to be brought into commercial service, and was progressive, not only for its twin-aisle setup, but also for its double-deck configuration. The plane’s passenger capacity was double that of the second largest long-haul aircraft, and the 747’s size paved the way for a second cargo version, complete with a forward nose-loading capacity.
[T]he aviation industry has undergone a series of extraordinary changes, and everything from traveller numbers to fuel costs have been utterly transformed
“Its introduction not only created a new passenger experience for both economy and first class passengers – such as an upstairs bar and lounge facility for those in first class – but also created a significant capacity increase for freight,” says Peter Kenworthy, Director of Mott MacDonald’s air services advisory business. The aircraft’s renown was such that it was deemed worthy even of transporting America’s President, and, to this day, Air Force One takes the shape of a specially kitted out 747. Unfortunately, the glory years of the 747 are fading; it looks as though the aircraft’s final days as a commercial flyer are upon us.
The Jumbo Jet’s downfall
Skip forward to the present day and orders for the 747 have petered out to such an extent that some models are coming off the production line and straight into storage. The aircraft that was once hailed as the single-most important invention in commercial flight has come to be seen as redundant by some, with its four-engine set-up and seemingly unquenchable thirst for fuel.
In a damning indictment of the aircraft’s fading stature, Boeing announced in October last year that it would be adjusting its already reduced production rate of 1.75 to 1.5 planes per month through to 2015, due to “lower market demand for larger passenger and freighter airplanes”. Given Boeing sold a record 122 747s in 1990, this measly 18-craft-per-year production rate illustrates how far the plane has fallen.
Exacerbating the plight of the 747 is the speed at which airlines are dropping the craft from their line-ups. Where once carriers clamoured to have it, cheaper, more fuel-efficient and more diverse craft have supplanted it.
Slow to change
In the 40-plus years since the 747’s introduction, the aviation industry has undergone a series of extraordinary changes, and everything from traveller numbers to fuel costs have been utterly transformed.
According to GlobalChange.com, the number of passengers in the UK from 1954 to 2005 has surged from four million to 228 million a year, and the figures look certain to continue upwards as those in emerging markets travel abroad more often. Domestic air transport in China grew at an average annual rate of 15.5 percent between 2000 to 2006, according to the Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions, and figures compiled by Boeing show Chinese air traffic in 2012 increased 10.6 percent year-on-year.
These numbers are indicative of wholesale changes to the aviation industry, though also reveal the extent to which the jumbo has failed to keep pace. “Long-haul capacity provided by airlines has been moving to more fuel-efficient and smaller twin-jet aircraft, often with increasing frequency on a given route,” says Kenworthy. “Operations by four-engined long-haul aircraft such as the Boeing 747 or Airbus A380 are increasingly providing capacity in markets where airport slots are constrained, such as at Heathrow. The smaller seating capacity of twin jet aircraft, improving seat cost economics and improved range is facilitating both a higher frequency of operations on many long-haul routes as well as enabling new smaller long-haul markets to be served.”
Ask any carrier what their top cost is and chances are they’ll say fuel. Ongoing social and political unrest in key supply sites, combined with spiralling demand and the global financial crisis, have seen oil prices skyrocket in the last 40 years, and four-engine gas guzzlers like the 747 are not paying their way.
What’s more, a far sharper focus on climate change has seen the aviation space come under fire from consumers concerned about environmental costs. Europe’s Clean Sky research programme shows that air transport represents two percent of all human-induced CO2 emissions, and 12 percent of that from all transport sources – few want the negative publicity that comes with stocking a gas-guzzling jumbo jet. As far as advances in fuel efficiency are concerned, the 747 has been left to stagnate while the rest of the pack has slashed emissions dramatically.
Another issue is the 747’s lack of diversity. The sheer size of the plane means it’s only equipped for long-haul flights, and in an age where company margins are growing slimmer by the day, carriers prefer to have an aircraft capable of both long and short-haul trips.
Saving grace
“However, the latest version of the Boeing 747 has an immediate role to play, albeit focused towards serving cargo rather than passenger markets as the 747-8I passenger aircraft has seen limited success,” says Kenworthy. The number of 747s in service today is made respectable only by its place in the global air-cargo industry, which faces different risks should the recession-hit freight business continue to plummet at the current rapid rate.
However, the fact that the 747’s extinction is buffeted only by its place in freight shows how its status has diminished. And while, at the time of writing, there is a still a small place for the 747 in commercial flight, the day when the epoch-defining machine will be wiped from the sky is coming, and the craft’s place will be reserved only for museums, storerooms and scrapyards.
